Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Wakana Sonobe vs Nikola Bartunkova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecef563a80ad142c56a71a0c2150c0c36af391d75061e5bb5340e8a649770487
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonobeof Sonobe, Bartunkova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bartunkova | 35c | 15,222$5,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,322.13 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonobe | 63c | 14,187$8,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,291.73 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sonobe | 78c | 4,428$3,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.41 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonobe | 59c | 2,414$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.46 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bartunkova | 31c | 2,086$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.68 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Sonobe | 52c | 1,034$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.44 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bartunkova | 25c | 730.55$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Bartunkova | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Bartunkova | 23c | 555$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Bartunkova | 15c | 513.33$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sonobe | 69c | 469.12$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…39aabacked Bartunkova | 50c | 298.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Bartunkova | 37c | 295$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.02 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Bartunkova | 35c | 265.05$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.9 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Bartunkova | 36c | 241.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bartunkova | 69c | 193.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bartunkova | 19c | 179.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,217 | 46.3%563 W · 654 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3819…1774backed Sonobe | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Bartunkova | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Sonobe | 71c | 95.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…9a91backed Bartunkova | 21c | 95.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Bartunkova | 26c | 85.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Bartunkova | 37c | 64.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Bartunkova | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.