Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed08c16dba47ac1849f5180f901d5a67c91c9c5f66f93ed3468c943ed6fd8a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 516$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 25c | 439.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.11 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 11c | 355.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 329.03$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 267.58$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 234.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 29c | 208.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 24c | 182.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 12c | 155.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 144.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 48c | 138.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 136.01$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 76c | 126.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 122.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 119.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…db8cbacked Yes | 17c | 118.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…78c4backed Yes | 29c | 118.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 58c | 117.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 27c | 113.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 72c | 111.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…7fc8backed Yes | 12c | 109.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +201.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 26c | 102.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 57c | 100.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 20c | 99.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 28c | 96.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 25c | 86.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 83.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 83.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 19c | 81.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 48c | 77.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 26c | 76.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 68.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…f41ebacked Yes | 19c | 63.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 22c | 59.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 55.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 71c | 49.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 33c | 48.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…752fbacked Yes | 54c | 45.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 27c | 43.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 42.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 79c | 41.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 72c | 35.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 44c | 28.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed Yes | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 70c | 21.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 70c | 19.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d98dbacked No | 77c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed Yes | 77c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.