Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed3ab9a149de87c5d2ed07e7576692f415304a2e18f1696dbb6cbb5664eee760
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x505f…645ebacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 640.86$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.38 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 46c | 499.86$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.98 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed VP.Prodigy | 53c | 348.22$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.77 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 335.46$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Rune Eaters | 44c | 268.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.38 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 176.19$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed VP.Prodigy | 14c | 166.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 101.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed VP.Prodigy | 43c | 95.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed VP.Prodigy | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked VP.Prodigy | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked Rune Eaters | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 25.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed Rune Eaters | 46c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group BRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.