Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 19-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed42fedf02cae4cfca004e318cae789508c951b96a90210041f7a41aa5379f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 5c | 6,449$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.95 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 12c | 4,504$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.11 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 4,126$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 1,524$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.75 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc80d…4c1ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,003$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…4dcfbacked Yes | 7c | 606.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +601%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 546.49$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 15c | 506.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 500.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 7c | 464.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 326.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…2bf6backed Yes | 4c | 265.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…d415backed No | 68c | 264$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…5ea7backed Yes | 4c | 241.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 65c | 140.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…281bbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…b54dbacked Yes | 42c | 119.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb35d…f197backed No | 34c | 119.21$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 21c | 94.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…5c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…77c8backed Yes | 21c | 70.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b4…15e3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x176c…a89bbacked No | 65c | 37.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…14f4backed No | 62c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +325.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…b752backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…0045backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7a…da74backed No | 63c | 17.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…d62cbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.80 January 19-25?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.40 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.60 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.70 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.90 January 19-25?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.10 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.30 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.50 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 January 19-25?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.70 January 19-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.