MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4e181012306af919b469798577bf2315400ed86050ea6ea06e3ceedcb71e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,593 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 1,702$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.73 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 50c | 1,339$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 277.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.43 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Athletics | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 264.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Athletics | 53c | 244.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.55 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 196.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Athletics | 52c | 184$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Athletics | 64c | 176.9$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Athletics | 53c | 171.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 132.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Athletics | 62c | 128.48$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Seattle Mariners | 79c | 121.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 110.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Athletics | 54c | 100.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 85.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 54.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Athletics | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics | 57c | 40.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b132backed Athletics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 38.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Athletics | 55c | 37.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 247 | 48.6%120 W · 127 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Athletics | 29c | 34.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Athletics | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Athletics | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.