Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Bayern Munich?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4e1fdcd990a79c1f347ebc5e62b48f2d57dcdbcdb5ddfe172844fdca068664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 79c | 967.7$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.22 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 21c | 899.97$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…a9bebacked Yes | 27c | 550.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 77c | 494.47$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 23c | 330$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 79c | 201.82$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 21c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 77c | 66.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…35d7backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…576dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4277…7b2bbacked No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…6dd9backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Bayern Munich?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat Bayer Leverkusen?No won
- Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.