Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat Bayer Leverkusen?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf34a00834f97996828accbc165ea7e94bde2feab5ef883695b3faef8d460344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…97febacked Yes | 61c | 1,645$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 40c | 1,104$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 42c | 999.9$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 40c | 859.29$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 57c | 519$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 44c | 510.49$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 55c | 274.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 42c | 264.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 43c | 221$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…d61bbacked Yes | 58c | 217.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 44c | 216.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2c…3cbdbacked No | 44c | 212.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 41c | 199.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.98 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…6c0bbacked Yes | 57c | 177.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e6…84a8backed Yes | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf2…729ebacked Yes | 58c | 141.26$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…052bbacked Yes | 58c | 99.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…7e80backed Yes | 58c | 99.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…1058backed Yes | 58c | 99.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5feb…6aeabacked No | 43c | 98.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…8e9fbacked No | 43c | 98.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…4420backed No | 43c | 98.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed Yes | 59c | 87.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Yes | 56c | 72.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…c975backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…56d2backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…1402backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 43c | 44.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes | 57c | 41.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…46d3backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…d7abbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 59c | 30.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ed…85a7backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77d…2fb7backed Yes | 58c | 22.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1623…267abacked Yes | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…68c7backed Yes | 58c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…75a6backed Yes | 63c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat Bayer Leverkusen?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.