Boxing · resolved market
Liam Smith vs. Aaron McKenna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed4ef91feca83158c77be70ab018feaef6ea702b6ddd9e57665d255c1e99d1a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McKennaof Smith, McKenna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd299…840fbacked McKenna | 60c | 28,716$17,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,486.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…ac6dbacked Smith | 40c | 28,716$11,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,486.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…d733backed Smith | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…e87abacked McKenna | 62c | 830$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4311…af56backed Smith | 38c | 605$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f6…c209backed Smith | 40c | 605$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Smith | 38c | 600$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed McKenna | 62c | 427$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked Smith | 38c | 375$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…9474backed Smith | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2d…43f3backed Smith | 40c | 255$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…e1b1backed Smith | 38c | 255$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…00bfbacked Smith | 38c | 255$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…8bb9backed Smith | 40c | 255$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked McKenna | 62c | 235$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecd…0486backed McKenna | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…3257backed McKenna | 62c | 210$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…bba0backed McKenna | 62c | 180$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…5942backed McKenna | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked McKenna | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed McKenna | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Smith | 40c | 89.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed McKenna | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…45c5backed McKenna | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…2353backed McKenna | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liam Smith vs. Aaron McKennathis page
- Anthony Yarde vs. Lyndon ArthurYarde won
- Chris Billam-Smith vs. Brandon GlantonBillam-Smith won
- Chris Eubank Jr. vs. Conor BennEubank Jr. won
- Viddal Riley vs. Cheavon ClarkeRiley won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.