CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ARCRED - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed60a445704aff230cbf883b7dfd3b9974990e2a00b40c1e8decb97b9a7935e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof Alliance, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Alliance | 76c | 2,061$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.02 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4e…c4a0backed ARCRED | 42c | 1,657$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Alliance | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ARCRED | 37c | 256.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ARCRED | 26c | 154.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed ARCRED | 19c | 133.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked ARCRED | 34c | 118.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 464 | 47.6%221 W · 243 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked Alliance | 74c | 115.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alliance | 57c | 114$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Alliance | 66c | 109.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 166 | 50.6%84 W · 82 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed ARCRED | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked ARCRED | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed ARCRED | 33c | 76.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Alliance | 69c | 53.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked ARCRED | 39c | 38.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…4ceabacked Alliance | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 157 | 56.1%88 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ARCRED - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ARCRED (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 PlayoffsAlliance won
- Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ARCRED - Map 2 WinnerARCRED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.