Premier League · resolved market
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed7896090e3fbcfa5053a9b1cce584e23ba03656a950bb1970ef8ab7345eb6d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2da0…2f48backed Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 65c | 1,322$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.93 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 1,186$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.7 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 52c | 977.52$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.31 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…d5a6backed Yes | 33c | 757.58$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 71c | 704.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.21 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 31c | 495.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Yes | 74c | 397.44$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.17 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 69c | 359.93$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.92 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 58c | 354.74$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 314.47$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.75 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 54c | 312.67$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…3d9dbacked Yes | 47c | 213.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 47c | 195.23$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 74c | 150.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 47c | 144$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 35c | 134.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 29c | 107.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.31 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Yes | 50c | 97.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 52c | 64.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 182 | 51.6%94 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 35c | 39.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…517bbacked Yes | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…95debacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…308abacked No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 59c | 28.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 50.9%147 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…7e4dbacked No | 55c | 19.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…023ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw?No won
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-01-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.