Premier League · resolved market
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-01-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x402d70fae4b41250ce28f8630623b080d93dd4cdddc5b3d07e265dace76e9269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 3,401$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.49 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 18c | 536.54$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 149$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 25c | 128.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 124.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 23c | 64.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 76c | 38.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 584 | 45.9%268 W · 316 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…14eabacked No | 64c | 27.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed No | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-01-04?this page
- Will Millwall FC vs. Swansea City AFC end in a draw?No won
- Will Millwall FC win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.