Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd8591723728bfbed57bdd6409513ebdb574f6a570326d6e5e205436f7cccd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 15,330$11,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 15c | 14,998$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.25 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Under | 52c | 2,497$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 64c | 1,511$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 37c | 1,362$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 78c | 1,004$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.85 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Over | 33c | 997.82$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 71c | 774.65$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 673.85$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 60c | 525$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.92 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 35c | 297.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 70c | 199.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 10c | 133.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 22c | 105.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 96 | 21.9%21 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Under | 59c | 58.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 78c | 49.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e5…6f7abacked Over | 72c | 38.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…f53bbacked Under | 30c | 37.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 30c | 37.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…eff8backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…9422backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…a3aebacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…a2d1backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…4d5bbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…c890backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…095dbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…f150backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…38a3backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f7…4933backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ea…c1edbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6c…cd29backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d9…e920backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31b…a3edbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…630cbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…5870backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a3…fef9backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3848…7904backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3527…71a6backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f9…b8b1backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7696…e9fcbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165c…6c0dbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…39d7backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…d8f4backed Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…1a3bbacked Under | 30c | 35.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b32backed Over | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 63c | 20.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.