Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e6460e67afda18cfcfcd022e7e5605d65f0e8241867ffd90f8c7bb64349499a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 56c | 6,545$3,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.87 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 61c | 5,397$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118.95 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 5,076$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.61 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 44c | 5,050$2,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,221.47 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 4,342$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 36c | 2,300$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.16 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…316abacked Over | 45c | 2,258$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Over | 46c | 633.89$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Under | 57c | 603.51$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.51 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 44c | 545.18$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 56c | 450.29$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.13 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 5c | 421.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 57c | 351.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…be02backed Under | 56c | 350$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b2…d3c9backed Under | 57c | 263.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 168.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 139.83$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 121 | 62.8%76 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Over | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Over | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 56c | 32.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd483…6365backed Over | 44c | 30.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…7c39backed Under | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 70c | 17.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.