Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee3e8c8e8dd32795827195c5ff9a496bfabb3582dcb69e94086cf9eccca58949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 26c | 3,572$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.09 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,441$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.58 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 2,000$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.06 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 1,612$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,110$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 70c | 550$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 523.48$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…c4e8backed Yes | 27c | 445.44$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 35c | 271.44$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 31c | 222.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 35c | 198$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 33.3%30 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 66c | 150.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 17.6%19 W · 89 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d19fbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed No | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 23c | 43.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed No | 66c | 35.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked No | 76c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.