Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78722a5de17f325638650fa6555b50ddd119350fb2158743f5107016708722c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Yes | 37c | 2,837$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 1,845$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.9 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 1,597$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.5 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 66c | 1,564$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.96 | 7,966 | 45.3%3,608 W · 4,358 L | +9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 37c | 1,352$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…56f2backed Yes | 34c | 999.99$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 660.59$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.15 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 61c | 645.73$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 40c | 499.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 123.73$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5,748 | 42%2,417 W · 3,331 L | +80.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Yes | 32c | 108$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 63c | 95.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 89.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 35c | 71.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 216 | 40.7%88 W · 128 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 34c | 70.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b5…a762backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 63c | 67.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 330 | 35.2%116 W · 214 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb433…f543backed No | 59c | 47.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 73c | 39.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked No | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4584…fb0dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2025-12-20?this page
- Will CF Estrela da Amadora vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-12-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.