College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee68a147ed1fae83d6a2416919ece6a8f6180a9857ba70cbfe24fb7d139bc8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texasof Texas, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Texas | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Texas | 49c | 3,965$1,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arkansas | 51c | 3,263$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.13 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas | 48c | 2,972$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.84 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Arkansas | 52c | 2,942$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.84 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arkansas | 52c | 2,762$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.28 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Texas | 47c | 2,591$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.06 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas | 51c | 1,304$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.09 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Texas | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Texas | 52c | 958.04$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Arkansas | 53c | 472.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Arkansas | 51c | 404$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Arkansas | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Arkansas | 51c | 176$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Texas | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Texas | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Texas | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Arkansas | 52c | 76.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Arkansas | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texas | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Arkansas | 50c | 57.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Arkansas | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas | 48c | 27.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-9.5)this page
- Arkansas vs. TexasTexas won
- O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-10.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-8.5)Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.