College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1308ff8fea87e44dd68c9d7dd47015c10a9749334033d8d5ef9dc3099cb92636
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texasof Texas, Arkansas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Arkansas | 60c | 41,653$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 193 | 62.2%120 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas | 40c | 27,946$11,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,656.91 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Texas | 39c | 13,857$5,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,415.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Texas | 45c | 3,770$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.43 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Arkansas | 55c | 3,560$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Arkansas | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Texas | 46c | 540.32$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.48 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Arkansas | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Arkansas | 56c | 266.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Texas | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6169backed Texas | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas | 44c | 171$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Texas | 44c | 121.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texas | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Texas | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Texas | 43c | 95.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Texas | 40c | 76.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Arkansas | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Texas | 44c | 58.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Texas | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Arkansas | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1940…bfb1backed Arkansas | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-10.5)this page
- Arkansas vs. TexasTexas won
- O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-8.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-9.5)Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.