College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef187c54d03dcb9ec83a7bdec1d2b34f5a06c02788cf2d812dd97ff2aa9b5fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Californiaof Louisville, California
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed California | 50c | 77,222$38,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,438.78 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Louisville | 50c | 53,990$26,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,795.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Louisville | 50c | 35,299$17,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,655.18 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Louisville | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed California | 50c | 18,699$9,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,349.5 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Louisville | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked California | 49c | 14,825$7,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.6 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Louisville | 49c | 12,222$5,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,988.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed California | 49c | 10,687$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,407.11 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California | 50c | 8,426$4,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,214.15 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed California | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed California | 50c | 704.3$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.64 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…587ebacked California | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked California | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked California | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Louisville | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed California | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Louisville | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked California | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Louisville | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed California | 50c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…2fb4backed Louisville | 51c | 20.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed California | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398a…95b7backed Louisville | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-18.5)this page
- California vs. LouisvilleCalifornia won
- California vs. Louisville: O/U 49.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville (-19.5)California won
- Spread: Louisville (-20.5)California won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.