Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef3d54956062fe4d8683f44b8eabd4fecf404a1b58ce3a27fc9550409ac76142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 8c | 611.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 76c | 480.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.77 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 322.71$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 37c | 269.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 262.71$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 257.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 23c | 214.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 75c | 199.92$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.48 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed Yes | 19c | 185.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 20c | 155.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 148.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 135.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 121.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 80c | 115.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 102.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 71c | 93.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 26c | 82.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 30c | 71.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 77c | 70.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 36c | 69.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 68.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 56.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 36c | 50.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 49.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 59c | 44.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 75c | 37.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 74c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 63c | 34.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…adc6backed Yes | 37c | 29.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Yes | 45c | 26.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 74c | 26.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 23.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 68c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on April 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on April 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.