Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef64cd34d463fe0d5128a0e2a30f9f7a344203f22a20cb588a89dd6aee60bb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,099 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7936…2ccbbacked Yes | 0c | 2,857$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,209$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 888.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 745.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed Yes | 10c | 579.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 7c | 530.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 20c | 434$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 269.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 262.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 11c | 235.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.44 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e44…2af6backed Yes | 33c | 227$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 216.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 205.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 179.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 13c | 175.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 29c | 149.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…2f2fbacked Yes | 11c | 147.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 28c | 145.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 25c | 128.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 14c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…99eabacked Yes | 11c | 122.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 114.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 33c | 105.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…40e5backed Yes | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 69.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32b…96c9backed Yes | 24c | 67.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 39c | 62.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 60.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 26c | 52.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 50c | 50.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 38c | 43.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536c…1c05backed No | 71c | 40.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 40.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 54c | 36.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 77c | 30.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…d65abacked No | 80c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.