Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef8b42e0e7bb28b0062d30481bb7bc0dcc114d3cef167c7b0e09f3bc056a5e84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,147 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 41c | 252.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.29 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 12c | 171.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 152.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 61c | 144.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 138.02$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 120.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 66c | 99.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 55c | 90.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 35c | 77.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 71c | 70.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 25c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 60c | 65.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 62c | 54.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 49.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 72c | 43.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 42.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 39.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9641…5385backed Yes | 46c | 32.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 75c | 25.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 24.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 60c | 17.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…223dbacked No | 72c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…f9b9backed Yes | 78c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 12.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C or higher on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.