Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef93096aa202c988a12e2a5f748e1b99dd9e3a708f9cf71ccdd9db5964ec4a32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Over | 45c | 106,793$48,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,396.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 54c | 64,310$35,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,309.77 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 15,986$8,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,209.49 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 9,963$5,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,472.43 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 58c | 6,500$3,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,729.96 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 5,763$3,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,409.26 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 55c | 1,761$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.75 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 58c | 1,468$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.29 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Over | 42c | 1,264$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…99f6backed Under | 73c | 543.84$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 399 | 48.4%193 W · 206 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 55c | 275$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 274.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 43c | 178.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Over | 44c | 171.57$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 41c | 137.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 55c | 135$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 655 | 57.7%378 W · 277 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 61c | 122.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 351 | 57.8%203 W · 148 L | +18.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 55c | 112$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 273 | 54.9%150 W · 123 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 323 | 57.6%186 W · 137 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 84.7$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 118 | 66.1%78 W · 40 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 261 | 58.2%152 W · 109 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 305 | 54.8%167 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 254 | 56.3%143 W · 111 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 260 | 58.5%152 W · 108 L | +15.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 290 | 57.9%168 W · 122 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 282 | 55.7%157 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 283 | 59.4%168 W · 115 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 321 | 58.6%188 W · 133 L | +18.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 44c | 56.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 54c | 52.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 255 | 53.7%137 W · 118 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 362 | 59.1%214 W · 148 L | +23.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…f425backed Over | 50c | 39.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 40c | 37.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 194 | 55.2%107 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 54c | 31.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 236 | 58.1%137 W · 99 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 269 | 59.9%161 W · 108 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 228 | 58.8%134 W · 94 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…3ff9backed Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 205 | 56.6%116 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Derby County FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.