Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close at $620-$630 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefccfdfc2e79f185be43496ae02aaeadae65d686566884d8e6e14af5182e0ea2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2402…48adbacked Yes | 5c | 2,930$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.63per pick | 9cpaid | +1,275.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 34c | 282.52$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.16 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 229.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 30c | 166$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…5fd1backed Yes | 33c | 52.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dc…ffa1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…4c3fbacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…da10backed No | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…20f7backed No | 69c | 15.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close at $620-$630 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?this page
- Will Meta (META) close at $600-$610 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at $610-$620 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at $630-$640 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at $640-$650 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at $650-$660 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at $680-$690 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
- Will Meta (META) close at <$600 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.