Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd2ca583446a2e3a7c83b62666b196d698455e41d06bc6eb3ab9f9a46c28f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 1,082$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…4d2bbacked Yes | 25c | 631.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 337.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 18c | 317.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 19c | 296.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 275.55$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 75c | 266.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 218.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 215.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 172.91$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 161.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 156.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 20c | 154.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 153.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 17c | 142.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 26c | 131.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 102.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 96.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 25c | 92.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 23c | 87.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 73.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 66.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 19c | 62.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 35c | 62.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 19c | 61.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 22c | 52.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 75c | 52.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 26c | 47.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 40.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 37c | 38.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 38.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 77c | 36.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 69c | 34.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…d5e9backed No | 80c | 30.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 30.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 77c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 76c | 24.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…717abacked No | 79c | 22.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 76cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 65c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.