Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81bd2113dc47d905d83f46f19c2b8f5aad7e97e48b058b768c3b7fd640afa13b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 43c | 353.46$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 267.72$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 69c | 263.5$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 254.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 245.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 10c | 209.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 27c | 201.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 39c | 193.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 146.89$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 22c | 140.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 137.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 135.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 37c | 118.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 111.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 23c | 99.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 99.31$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 93.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 63.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 74c | 60.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 58.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 52c | 54.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed Yes | 34c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 53c | 54.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 45.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 32c | 41.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 27c | 40.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 30c | 39.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 35c | 37.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 69c | 34.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 36c | 34.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 75c | 32.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 28.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 79c | 27.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 25.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…e859backed No | 63c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 68c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…b30abacked No | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…c890backed No | 69c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2598…17dfbacked No | 76c | 16.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.