Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe9cc49fa3eecd3b7d323329ee8bba2177f7a4c9349129adac0766c4044b65b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 21c | 10,056$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.81 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 79c | 7,976$6,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.95 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 2c | 1,813$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa059…dbcfbacked No | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 56cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 733.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 31c | 667.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 26c | 559.44$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 70c | 233.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 208$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 7c | 177.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 164.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 26c | 163.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 30c | 147.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 130.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 130.07$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 29c | 120.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 235 | 31.1%73 W · 162 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 570 | 54.4%310 W · 260 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 30c | 95.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 17c | 75.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 23c | 75.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 62.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 32c | 59.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 40c | 50.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 49.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 24c | 49.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked No | 78c | 48.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 79c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 71c | 39.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 811 | 24.8%201 W · 610 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 71c | 38.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 76c | 38.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a599backed No | 75c | 36.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…3a34backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 36c | 34.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 74c | 22.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 21.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 19.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 262 | 67.6%177 W · 85 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.