Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ed5afc591b85fd1a3b7e7c406b698e4200005e43b59ac65d511c59a80198e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 1c | 3,723$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 2,230 | 23.8%531 W · 1,699 L | +89.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 1c | 2,928$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 232 | 37.5%87 W · 145 L | +30.6wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,919$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.51 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 66c | 367.74$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 170 | 45.3%77 W · 93 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 346.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…5abdbacked Yes | 30c | 331.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 329.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.01 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 312.9$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 4c | 259.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +15.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 70c | 233.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 218.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 210.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 9c | 196.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 26c | 111$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 103.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 102.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 83.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 78.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 21c | 69.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 29c | 69.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 58.4%149 W · 106 L | +23.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 68.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 484 | 46.1%223 W · 261 L | +45.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 25c | 64.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed No | 79c | 63.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 60.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 76c | 57.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 22c | 53.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 384 | 42.4%163 W · 221 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…4eebbacked No | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 41.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…f1f5backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 223 | 65%145 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 75c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…71bcbacked No | 54c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 20.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 18.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 78c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 18.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 75c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked No | 71c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 79c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.