Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf036fd29ada00009de517bb6e8b584e4619ad044e60a967549bdbce6fbaa5865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof 1win, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed 1win | 70c | 4,800$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,359.99 | 569 | 55.5%316 W · 253 L | +22.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 3,106$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.32 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked 1win | 66c | 2,336$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.39 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 33c | 1,387$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.84 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Yellow Submarine | 39c | 817.85$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.09 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Yellow Submarine | 28c | 736.19$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.4 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed 1win | 60c | 550.38$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.75 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Yellow Submarine | 32c | 467.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.28 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Yellow Submarine | 39c | 402.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.45 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed Yellow Submarine | 49c | 395.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.19 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed 1win | 56c | 383.38$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed 1win | 76c | 323.84$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.67 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Yellow Submarine | 43c | 321.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed 1win | 50c | 299.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a74…e456backed Yellow Submarine | 36c | 268.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 267.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.16 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 233.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked 1win | 46c | 208.21$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 159.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.77 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yellow Submarine | 34c | 119.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yellow Submarine | 39c | 93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 91.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 81.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5f…d393backed Yellow Submarine | 40c | 81.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed 1win | 56c | 51.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 61c | 49.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Yellow Submarine | 40c | 38.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 125 | 68%85 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 35.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yellow Submarine | 31c | 33.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed 1win | 61c | 27.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: 1win vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.