MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04c66a892cadaedd132e5ba074c900388d0a9d062ac7214c219542354680434
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,181
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Over | 55c | 499.97$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 326 | 51.5%168 W · 158 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 56c | 299.93$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.97 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 41c | 177.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 43c | 148.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 55c | 114.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8909…4582backed Over | 59c | 84.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe82d…ff14backed Under | 45c | 74.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…29bebacked Over | 60c | 68.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…38fdbacked Under | 44c | 65.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,144 | 46.3%530 W · 614 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Under | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…529bbacked Under | 44c | 49.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67fd…87ecbacked Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2b…419ebacked Under | 45c | 38.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…061bbacked Under | 45c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…0e31backed Over | 58c | 33.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…1ec2backed Over | 60c | 33.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x953c…6e17backed Over | 59c | 33.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…028bbacked Under | 44c | 32.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e40…c16dbacked Over | 58c | 32.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed2…53f6backed Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…2a0abacked Over | 60c | 30.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…0b0ebacked Under | 44c | 30.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed8…db57backed Under | 44c | 30.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8508backed Under | 44c | 29.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…28bebacked Over | 60c | 28.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…fed7backed Under | 44c | 28.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…53e5backed Over | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…c927backed Over | 59c | 24.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36a…3b45backed Over | 58c | 24.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…b695backed Over | 60c | 20.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5e…9bfebacked Over | 57c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Guardians vs. Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Guardians vs. Red SoxRed Sox won
- Spread: Red Sox (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.