TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Soxof Guardians, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$161,244
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$221,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,244 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Red Sox57c57,045$32,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,529.3428646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Guardians43c20,763$8,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,928.0916347.9%78 W · 85 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Guardians43c15,116$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,50019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Guardians42c12,280$5,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,157.6534245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Guardians43c7,238$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,087.771,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Red Sox59c5,015$2,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.191,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c4…6ea5backed Red Sox58c4,200$2,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7642751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guardians34c2,943$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.3712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians34c2,744$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.069,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox63c2,516$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.382,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians43c2,434$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.572,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…edf8backed Guardians43c1,950$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.54955.1%27 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Guardians43c1,860$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.81,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe973…7338backed Guardians43c1,233$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.191566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f23…babebacked Red Sox57c1,056$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.08955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef3…f121backed Guardians43c1,053$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.79825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54c8…84d8backed Guardians43c1,047$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.21966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d7…6f3ebacked Red Sox57c1,044$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.92757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Guardians47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Guardians43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Red Sox72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28043946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Red Sox45c943.08$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.5717243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians49c869.08$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.166,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Guardians43c820.79$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.9470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Red Sox58c799.34$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.7237857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Red Sox61c738.03$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.0325551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guardians50c613.44$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.558,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Red Sox65c529.35$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.8921747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8b…23d2backed Red Sox58c527.59$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.593863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Red Sox58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.247650%38 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Red Sox58c517$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.141,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Guardians42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21023455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Red Sox58c491.8$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.561,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Guardians43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Red Sox53c440$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.832042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Red Sox57c428.97$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.461,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Guardians24c424.62$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9166645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Sox55c400.38$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3888549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Guardians43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1723,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Red Sox59c400$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1635341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Red Sox58c346$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.3251953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Red Sox58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.832065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x394b…0cecbacked Red Sox73c342.88$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Red Sox60c288.73$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.491,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2906…5ae8backed Guardians53c282.92$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-74.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb7f4…5781backed Red Sox60c274.62$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.852864.3%18 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Red Sox76c267.52$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0338751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Red Sox65c265$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Red Sox59c242.57$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.9121246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Guardians43c235$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.051,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Guardians43c233$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1917946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Red Sox76c232.2$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.731,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Red Sox58c224.14$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1499951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8307…1cadbacked Red Sox58c214.97$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.298167.9%55 W · 26 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Red Sox58c181.03$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0378454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x344d…1278backed Red Sox58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.413959%23 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Red Sox58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.411,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Red Sox57c170$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.18454.8%46 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2408…9de9backed Guardians43c169.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.972437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa3e…e822backed Guardians43c162.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Guardians42c159.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3878445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Guardians44c151.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6670841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Red Sox58c137.93$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.936149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Guardians13c130$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.547745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Red Sox79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d40…f95abacked Guardians43c113.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.885955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b9…ed3abacked Guardians14c110.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158530.6%26 W · 59 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Red Sox61c105.49$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.914,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Red Sox57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2624751%126 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians43c105$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.151,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Guardians43c104.05$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.741,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Red Sox55c104$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.7915033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Red Sox61c101.9$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8576456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Guardians24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2445732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Guardians43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437553.3%40 W · 35 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Red Sox60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed Red Sox58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4210255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Red Sox58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e4d…67a5backed Red Sox58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4212352.8%65 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Guardians43c99.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6614949.7%74 W · 75 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Guardians43c93.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4049348.3%238 W · 255 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Red Sox58c86.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2140144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a6…6991backed Guardians24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2039739.5%157 W · 240 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf801…b27fbacked Red Sox48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Red Sox58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.625548.6%124 W · 131 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Guardians17c79.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7816135.4%57 W · 104 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Red Sox55c74.06$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Red Sox62c64.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5228447.5%135 W · 149 L-20.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Red Sox58c63.1$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.523248.3%112 W · 120 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Guardians43c58.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525954.1%140 W · 119 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x175b…b14cbacked Guardians43c58.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Guardians43c55.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0554455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b84…9d3bbacked Red Sox77c55.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5318350.3%92 W · 91 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76ae…b6e6backed Red Sox58c52.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.52,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Red Sox58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2118750.3%94 W · 93 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a66…5b12backed Guardians41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014450.7%73 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf62…227dbacked Guardians43c46.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1718850%94 W · 94 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Guardians43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.269547.5%330 W · 365 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.