Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05d72e1b5ae41697accf9db7e153eeb50056ef6e66c25f16f4d907715ede70f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Level UPof Level UP, Team AION
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Team AION | 22c | 6,614$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.27 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Level UP | 74c | 1,568$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.52 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Team AION | 29c | 1,045$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.28 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team AION | 6c | 1,041$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…df39backed Level UP | 77c | 909.54$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.54 | 169 | 63.3%107 W · 62 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…59e9backed Level UP | 78c | 894.85$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team AION | 4c | 887.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team AION | 16c | 804.46$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Level UP | 68c | 745.29$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.39 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Level UP | 73c | 552.69$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed Team AION | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8386backed Level UP | 77c | 389.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | -13.8wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…3d66backed Team AION | 18c | 312.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3e…db66backed Team AION | 24c | 204.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Team AION | 26c | 193.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team AION | 22c | 181.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Team AION | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Level UP | 73c | 146$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Level UP | 79c | 145.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Level UP | 67c | 137.3$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…b613backed Level UP | 79c | 126.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 45 | 77.8%35 W · 10 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Level UP | 80c | 116$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Team AION | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team AION | 10c | 102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Team AION | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 208 | 20.7%43 W · 165 L | -18.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Level UP | 80c | 67.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Level UP | 80c | 65.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team AION | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…ef10backed Team AION | 27c | 55.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Level UP | 76c | 52.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Level UP | 77c | 42.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Level UP | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Level UP | 77c | 26.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa5…a94abacked Level UP | 67c | 21.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed Level UP | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Level UP | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BLevel UP won
- Dota 2: Level UP vs Team AION - Game 2 WinnerTeam AION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.