Tennis · resolved market
ITF Irvine: Spencer Johnson vs Neo Niedner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0606a8bacda17315fdcad8057e0d29f06dbd6d2257c7a1f0f3d9a8f8c29f9c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spencer Johnsonof Spencer Johnson, Neo Niedner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Neo Niedner | 9c | 1,177$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Neo Niedner | 10c | 1,016$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.27 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Neo Niedner | 10c | 883$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Neo Niedner | 10c | 876.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Neo Niedner | 21c | 661.21$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Neo Niedner | 11c | 537.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Neo Niedner | 11c | 398$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Neo Niedner | 13c | 375.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Neo Niedner | 13c | 304.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Neo Niedner | 15c | 272.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Spencer Johnson | 80c | 222$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…7623backed Spencer Johnson | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 249 | 75.5%188 W · 61 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Neo Niedner | 21c | 111.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Neo Niedner | 23c | 53.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Neo Niedner | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Spencer Johnson | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Neo Niedner | 21c | 46.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Spencer Johnson | 77c | 42.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Spencer Johnson | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…e0a0backed Spencer Johnson | 78c | 17.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.