Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0919d6e470260a2a745ede34eed8febd8bfcbb3d7e9c4100faa1d393b0cd7cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof MODUS, Aim Possible
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c1d…4c70backed Aim Possible | 40c | 1,505$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked MODUS | 67c | 838.24$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.8 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aim Possible | 30c | 750$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked MODUS | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MODUS | 71c | 586.25$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.24 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked MODUS | 75c | 334.71$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Aim Possible | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 68c | 202$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MODUS | 68c | 188.34$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…85c0backed MODUS | 79c | 108.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 228 | 68%155 W · 73 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MODUS | 75c | 105.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked Aim Possible | 25c | 103.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 63c | 98.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Aim Possible | 30c | 66.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Aim Possible | 20c | 65.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked MODUS | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Aim Possible | 56c | 18.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible (BO3) - European Pro League Group BAim Possible won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible - Game 2 WinnerAim Possible won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.