Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ce511b607fa3a0feb5ff004a89c51544b1db1f4069bbec17f2eee26ca6facec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aim Possibleof MODUS, Aim Possible
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa35c…a113backed MODUS | 59c | 2,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.99 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Aim Possible | 46c | 1,310$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.39 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Aim Possible | 41c | 1,009$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.79 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked MODUS | 63c | 929.6$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.15 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aim Possible | 36c | 608.68$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.61 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MODUS | 56c | 372.72$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked MODUS | 79c | 299.98$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.98 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed MODUS | 53c | 290.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Aim Possible | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed MODUS | 28c | 180.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed MODUS | 53c | 171.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Aim Possible | 54c | 158.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Aim Possible | 50c | 150.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Aim Possible | 39c | 129.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Aim Possible | 46c | 122.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Aim Possible | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Aim Possible | 50c | 116.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed MODUS | 51c | 104.49$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Aim Possible | 45c | 103.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…75a1backed Aim Possible | 64c | 100.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Aim Possible | 17c | 70.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Aim Possible | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed MODUS | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Aim Possible | 74c | 56.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Aim Possible | 22c | 50.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed MODUS | 45c | 49.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked MODUS | 62c | 46.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11a…1002backed Aim Possible | 45c | 43.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Aim Possible | 37c | 41.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Aim Possible | 41c | 40.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed MODUS | 44c | 39.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked MODUS | 39c | 37.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed MODUS | 40c | 32.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed MODUS | 34c | 31.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Aim Possible | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Aim Possible | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked Aim Possible | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4471…3f7bbacked Aim Possible | 60c | 26.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 55c | 23.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed MODUS | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Aim Possible - Game 2 WinnerAim Possible won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.