TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Red Wings vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Red Wings, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,897 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x977a…f2cabacked Red Wings4c1,300$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning62c500.51$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.191,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Red Wings34c468.66$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.131,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Red Wings34c392.21$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3531334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.891,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c2d…d44dbacked Red Wings35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf33…3773backed Lightning65c290.82$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.79966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning65c285.22$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8375155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd942…47f3backed Red Wings35c283.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5219…ac3abacked Lightning67c275.06$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Red Wings38c264.31$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8372444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Lightning64c244$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.848537.6%32 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0bb…9702backed Lightning66c208.02$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.029861.2%60 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.271,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Lightning65c195.94$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.5819150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Wings16c190.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3291334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5118…c9e7backed Red Wings35c170.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning77c167.8$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.133,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd74…fed1backed Lightning68c148.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3251…9963backed Red Wings35c133.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b68…795bbacked Red Wings36c111.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed Red Wings33c110.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.62812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick28cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Red Wings35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Lightning66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3670249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Red Wings35c99.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9966951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings22c95.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c7…049abacked Lightning67c94.66$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Red Wings22c89.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe4…ba20backed Lightning66c78.85$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4a…e201backed Lightning66c71.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30b9…9b83backed Red Wings21c64.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.672653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c3…f88cbacked Red Wings35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Red Wings34c59.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4984051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d77…b3ffbacked Red Wings35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e38…5d36backed Lightning65c51.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.93742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8175…e4b8backed Lightning79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36eb…380dbacked Lightning66c46.32$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b3…75d4backed Red Wings34c42.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d3…981cbacked Red Wings36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3799…3f44backed Lightning65c39.18$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd4…8643backed Lightning65c38.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3918259.9%109 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xddd6…4a49backed Lightning61c38.22$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x413d…b601backed Red Wings39c38.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa41d…decfbacked Red Wings39c37.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad2…b0c4backed Lightning61c37.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…2cbabacked Lightning80c36.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279b…3bfcbacked Red Wings36c36.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.14560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8b…22b5backed Lightning65c36.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0986…390dbacked Lightning66c36.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xace1…48fdbacked Red Wings35c35.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2459…5c92backed Lightning66c35.54$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9208…0da2backed Red Wings36c35.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa58…5a8bbacked Lightning64c35.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c4…8fc3backed Red Wings35c34.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46b6…2ba0backed Red Wings33c34.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Lightning77c34.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.931,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7513…d71abacked Lightning65c34.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.97875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+40.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x858b…d023backed Lightning61c33.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+48.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…a7a6backed Red Wings35c33.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c3…e48dbacked Red Wings34c33.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3750%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3230…24f0backed Lightning66c33.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x679d…3933backed Red Wings35c32.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e9…67c6backed Red Wings36c32.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.741952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…c613backed Red Wings36c31.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.393729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x652f…8172backed Red Wings35c31.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x962c…3062backed Red Wings34c31.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d7e…10f9backed Lightning67c31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeda…6ba9backed Lightning66c30.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76af…b987backed Red Wings34c30.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+46.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa873…b887backed Red Wings35c30.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31d0…336bbacked Red Wings34c30.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf934…9f73backed Lightning66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25046%23 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2474…4957backed Lightning66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.286168.9%42 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…002cbacked Red Wings35c29.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x495d…ec79backed Red Wings34c29.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd4…ac9abacked Red Wings39c26.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b9…befdbacked Lightning65c26.73$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd176…a1dbbacked Lightning66c26.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf6…89ecbacked Lightning64c25.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.16475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d82…e1bebacked Lightning65c25.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.773100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+103.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cf…8a83backed Lightning64c24.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0867…bc19backed Lightning66c23.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.09850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc871…1d7bbacked Lightning67c22.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3370…5cecbacked Lightning65c22.03$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce50…a6c7backed Lightning66c21.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf993…df37backed Lightning65c21.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.62580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca23…2354backed Lightning65c21.22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcf2…b1c9backed Lightning66c19.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ad…c58cbacked Lightning66c19.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaff…6785backed Lightning63c19.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc9…8044backed Lightning66c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3b…d1c8backed Lightning66c18.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b45…bc64backed Lightning66c17.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…c882backed Lightning66c17.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…571abacked Lightning66c16.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce21…bec5backed Lightning66c15.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.