TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,176
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,176 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…cbc2backed Yes30c2,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.994037.5%15 W · 25 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+66.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1bb…8a25backed No73c923.16$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.612055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed No55c898.6$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49413224.2%32 W · 100 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf596…026cbacked Yes26c784.58$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.226937.7%26 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes39c402.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.42751.9%14 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No15c372.8$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7611254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes35c300$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b84…74c6backed Yes42c236.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.61944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No10c224.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.872506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No71c187.29$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.1260235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes47c165.81$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc708…c299backed Yes39c147$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b68…fe2ebacked No61c147$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76fe…0a95backed Yes29c144$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+74.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b4…e348backed No55c127$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.85366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdf…d9d0backed Yes45c127$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xada9…2307backed Yes31c98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+127.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9476…10dcbacked No54c97$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x830a…5cadbacked Yes57c94$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes42c86.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.266435.9%23 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-33.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ad…be3dbacked No71c86$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49e2…1c4bbacked Yes42c84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…f3c6backed Yes34c84$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…a0cdbacked No58c84$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9a…fd2ebacked No66c84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x430a…8853backed No69c81$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.04366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5397…fcf7backed Yes35c81$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes71c80.24$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5749338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04e4…64dfbacked Yes34c78$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick45cpaid+134.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x807d…9189backed No71c76.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.82437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ac…402dbacked Yes39c76$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No59c75.72$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.381758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a34…d4bfbacked No55c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c1…170fbacked No43c75$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4535…4a97backed Yes57c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80f…be51backed Yes45c75$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed No39c72.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.791822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93a2…0a14backed No49c72$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x750e…7575backed No55c69$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62ad…5200backed Yes38c69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.942100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+102.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfe…dc74backed Yes34c67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d5…0f71backed No49c66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3a…65e7backed No66c66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe412…d0e7backed Yes51c66$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf091…a187backed Yes51c61$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bd…0725backed No49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3735…4a8abacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb56…3fc0backed Yes32c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc93…4c32backed Yes30c59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+237.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ced…9defbacked Yes39c58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+93.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43f9…fce1backed No43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8524…d2b0backed Yes57c58$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe63a…3f6cbacked No61c58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e52…1034backed Yes34c56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b4…4f8cbacked Yes47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fe…ce30backed No65c53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2706…3cfbbacked No55c53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d69…c737backed No61c52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x377a…e167backed No72c52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f5…6d29backed No28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f07…da5cbacked No49c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2bb…b014backed Yes51c49$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d2…6c1dbacked No66c48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb7…fc5abacked Yes29c46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.66450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…0488backed No71c46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed No42c45.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+43.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea6…0cd3backed No72c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6a…020ebacked Yes67c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x485f…26d8backed No71c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0e…b1febacked Yes45c43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb4…0a89backed Yes29c43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b7…1f61backed Yes39c43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.23650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd631…0870backed No61c43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65b…51fabacked No61c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes33c40.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.241,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd4…d034backed Yes35c40.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.45637.5%21 W · 35 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x102d…06cdbacked Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+161.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f3…d803backed Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x893e…70edbacked No66c39$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ff…fe1fbacked Yes34c39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd738…9a01backed Yes29c39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e5…e4cfbacked Yes34c38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe211…ff41backed Yes53c38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+106.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3234…e4ffbacked No64c38$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd27f…b6bbbacked Yes45c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5587…8ddabacked No55c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.35366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5e1…3764backed Yes34c37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ce8…08cabacked No55c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…6768backed Yes45c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb902…03c6backed No55c37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x887a…df03backed No66c37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f58…aa47backed Yes29c37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e2…0679backed No71c37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick65cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf656…7f9bbacked Yes29c36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9901…baacbacked Yes37c36$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5f…3de7backed No63c36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…a7febacked No63c36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0238…64a6backed Yes34c36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b20…6ccebacked No66c36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.