Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf11c8514e43a75ea697190ddc6488eb6add613b7afe106f44201840813257200
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 30c | 2,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.99 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed No | 73c | 923.16$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed No | 55c | 898.6$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 26c | 784.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.22 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 39c | 402.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 15c | 372.8$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 42c | 236.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 224.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 71c | 187.29$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.12 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 47c | 165.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…c299backed Yes | 39c | 147$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…fe2ebacked No | 61c | 147$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…0a95backed Yes | 29c | 144$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…e348backed No | 55c | 127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…d9d0backed Yes | 45c | 127$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada9…2307backed Yes | 31c | 98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…10dcbacked No | 54c | 97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830a…5cadbacked Yes | 57c | 94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 42c | 86.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…be3dbacked No | 71c | 86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…1c4bbacked Yes | 42c | 84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…f3c6backed Yes | 34c | 84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…a0cdbacked No | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9a…fd2ebacked No | 66c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430a…8853backed No | 69c | 81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…fcf7backed Yes | 35c | 81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 71c | 80.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04e4…64dfbacked Yes | 34c | 78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 45cpaid | +134.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 71c | 76.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…402dbacked Yes | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 59c | 75.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…d4bfbacked No | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c1…170fbacked No | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…4a97backed Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…be51backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 39c | 72.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…0a14backed No | 49c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x750e…7575backed No | 55c | 69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ad…5200backed Yes | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…dc74backed Yes | 34c | 67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…0f71backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3a…65e7backed No | 66c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…d0e7backed Yes | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf091…a187backed Yes | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…0725backed No | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…4a8abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc93…4c32backed Yes | 30c | 59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…9defbacked Yes | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…fce1backed No | 43c | 58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…d2b0backed Yes | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…3f6cbacked No | 61c | 58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…1034backed Yes | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b4…4f8cbacked Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…ce30backed No | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…3cfbbacked No | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d69…c737backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377a…e167backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f07…da5cbacked No | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…b014backed Yes | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d2…6c1dbacked No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…0488backed No | 71c | 46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 42c | 45.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea6…0cd3backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…020ebacked Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…26d8backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked Yes | 45c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…0a89backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…1f61backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd631…0870backed No | 61c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65b…51fabacked No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 33c | 40.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…d034backed Yes | 35c | 40.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…06cdbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…70edbacked No | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…fe1fbacked Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…9a01backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…e4cfbacked Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…ff41backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…e4ffbacked No | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…b6bbbacked Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…8ddabacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e1…3764backed Yes | 34c | 37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…08cabacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…6768backed Yes | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…03c6backed No | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…df03backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f58…aa47backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…0679backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…7f9bbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…baacbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…3de7backed No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…a7febacked No | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…64a6backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b20…6ccebacked No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.