Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf20db3937a74087f98f0def2fb70d5365c880de134cb0a81f913c78fb4c50fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,520$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,917$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 33c | 747.38$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.13 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 5c | 510$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…a550backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.42per pick | 41cpaid | +1,025.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 368.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 32c | 314.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 79c | 279.72$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 32c | 210.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bb…8a25backed No | 60c | 199.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed No | 77c | 150.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 11c | 145$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…8213backed Yes | 43c | 133$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 61c | 122.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 24c | 112.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 65c | 88.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 18c | 74.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…b795backed No | 57c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…ff41backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…9713backed Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ee…f1f1backed Yes | 66c | 60.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…8edcbacked Yes | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 22c | 49.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x046e…200fbacked Yes | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 51c | 46.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…a870backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…1263backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked No | 63c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…2067backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…c1febacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…8a36backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…2bcbbacked Yes | 59c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…fc5abacked Yes | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…bc77backed No | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…5f00backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked No | 63c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…675fbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4561…17cbbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…b7fabacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…4a57backed No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…9f0fbacked No | 38c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af3…9189backed Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…2698backed Yes | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…fffebacked No | 66c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…9903backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…f5dabacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bca6backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5cd9backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173d…6dcdbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 55c | 27.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2009…20c2backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…1c7fbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…8ddabacked No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…bf69backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 57c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb06…8a8bbacked Yes | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa4…5d89backed Yes | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…3412backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…bfb1backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…ba48backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…791ebacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on February 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.