Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf14a52e6d6b547cabbe1a5cff70d490ffef201bea4e8d53630f4a564d148cd1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 2c | 12,595$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 26c | 7,726$1,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,986.61 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,720$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,197$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.83 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 1c | 4,641$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…212cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,568$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 12c | 3,380$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.66 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,532$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 10c | 1,715$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…747bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +4.3wins | +0.54per pick | 8cpaid | +1,507.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…7688backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,162$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,143$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…7ec4backed Yes | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 17c | 805.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf06…a211backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 606$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 7c | 518$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…3b3fbacked No | 56c | 448.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c44…f66fbacked Yes | 7c | 355.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 8c | 349.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…754fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…aa2ebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…06ccbacked Yes | 7c | 218.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d15…0ec3backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +1,042.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 144.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 14c | 142$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…4ee8backed Yes | 18c | 84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 59.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 77c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 10-16?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 August 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 August 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 August 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 August 10-16?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 August 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.