Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf176f22b9bb168e8e72ac829f375ac0793dc0fe66f09b4f1a3aef175f6d776c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe275…f1eebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…414fbacked Yes | 6c | 8,324$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 2,069$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.34 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,772$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.6 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 6c | 1,672$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 14c | 1,381$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 28c | 953.1$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.87 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293d…35e2backed Yes | 33c | 800$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…a6e2backed No | 66c | 799.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 72c | 769.33$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.41 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd1…ca22backed Yes | 33c | 628.64$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 67c | 444$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 67c | 360$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…fa89backed Yes | 33c | 333.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3600…606fbacked Yes | 31c | 330$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 32c | 321.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 4c | 315$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 30c | 269.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 69c | 204$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 36c | 201.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 21c | 177.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 33c | 152.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 93.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 68c | 88.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 86.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 65.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98b…58debacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…85cabacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 69c | 53.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 43 | 76.7%33 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Yes | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…e886backed Yes | 31c | 37.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-11-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.