UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18a10e346c823baa529d47d12fb08b5c22cedfa74be06c431f4358580ef76e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…6ec9backed Under | 50c | 979.2$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 52c | 525$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under | 52c | 443.88$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 42c | 262.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Under | 52c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69c…44dbbacked Under | 74c | 33.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 175 | 24%42 W · 133 L | -22.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d75…12a6backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)Bia Mesquita won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.