UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5229956fd4e5bcb8a9e70963baedf8327ccd5f7d8ae0851a7eb5661ebea1a222

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Bia Mesquitaof Montserrat Rendon, Bia Mesquita
Resolved: Mar 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,988 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in UFC
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed Montserrat Rendon	15c	20,000$3,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,043.53	72	45.8%33 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	15,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-8.1wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Montserrat Rendon	15c	10,852$1,628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,627.87	109	49.5%54 W · 55 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	3,692$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.96	156	41%64 W · 92 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Montserrat Rendon	15c	3,406$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	2,889$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.36	88	48.9%43 W · 45 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	2,100$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	1,500$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-3.9wins	-0.21per pick	33cpaid	-71.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	1,176$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	60	63.3%38 W · 22 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf05…f8e1backed Bia Mesquita	79c	1,000$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	70cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	999.99$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	515	33.6%173 W · 342 L	-7.2wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Montserrat Rendon	2c	963.23$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	167	45.5%76 W · 91 L	-6.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-13%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Montserrat Rendon	13c	958.62$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.61	201	39.8%80 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	945.75$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.76	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Montserrat Rendon	9c	852.07$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.21	224	38.4%86 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	700$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	325	45.2%147 W · 178 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d9…5896backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	142	37.3%53 W · 89 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa4…9a4cbacked Montserrat Rendon	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x441d…544dbacked Montserrat Rendon	18c	450$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	92	47.8%44 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	381.2$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	145	43.4%63 W · 82 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1b…724fbacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	380.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.77	49	81.6%40 W · 9 L	+7.8wins	+0.16per pick	66cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Montserrat Rendon	7c	370.34$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.27	274	48.2%132 W · 142 L	+12.7wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x87d6…d1e7backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	333.26$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Montserrat Rendon	13c	312.94$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	155	40.6%63 W · 92 L	-7.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Montserrat Rendon	7c	305$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc39…1564backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-3.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3af…aca1backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	294.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.2wins	-0.25per pick	32cpaid	-82.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Montserrat Rendon	13c	288.6$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.52	420	54%227 W · 193 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	280$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.2	56	42.9%24 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Montserrat Rendon	18c	275$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.89	75	28%21 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed Montserrat Rendon	15c	245.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	241.38$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	184	40.8%75 W · 109 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	240$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	240$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Montserrat Rendon	14c	240$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-4.2wins	-0.26per pick	32cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	235.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	186	47.3%88 W · 98 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	220$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x940c…6d07backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	205.88$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3169…21b4backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	201.59$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	522	52.9%276 W · 246 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	180$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	180$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Montserrat Rendon	18c	170.15$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.87	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	149.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	148	27%40 W · 108 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3a8…41a4backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…2db8backed Montserrat Rendon	13c	130$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.03	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc1…c34abacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	125.18$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bce…6c1dbacked Bia Mesquita	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	65	69.2%45 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe013…1ddcbacked Montserrat Rendon	13c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	120$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	58	41.4%24 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Montserrat Rendon	16c	119.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ee0…d75ebacked Montserrat Rendon	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	41cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fff…0482backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	114$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	56	67.9%38 W · 18 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	65cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8803…cd6ebacked Montserrat Rendon	18c	109$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.17per pick	35cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	106.56$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	103.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5271…0f95backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9092…554ebacked Montserrat Rendon	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa051…67b9backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	36cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	80	60%48 W · 32 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Montserrat Rendon	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.27per pick	35cpaid	-82.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Montserrat Rendon	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	104	39.4%41 W · 63 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Montserrat Rendon	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	90$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.8wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ee7…6760backed Bia Mesquita	52c	80.03$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.42	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	+4.5wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Montserrat Rendon	16c	79.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	136	46.3%63 W · 73 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Montserrat Rendon	14c	75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.26per pick	33cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Montserrat Rendon	21c	65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	210	31.9%67 W · 143 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Montserrat Rendon	17c	62.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Bia Mesquita	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	267	36%96 W · 171 L	-16.6wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ef6…8c16backed Montserrat Rendon	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	113	37.2%42 W · 71 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Bia Mesquita	65c	25$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.75	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1598…c488backed Bia Mesquita	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	128	60.2%77 W · 51 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
Fight to Go the Distance?No won
O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

UFC Fight Night: Montserrat Rendon vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event