Tennis · resolved market
Chengdu Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18d5b445309cc8e97fd83961f73cbaa0fbd08dea8f90fceae927e7dfe60ffd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Basilashvili
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Basilashvili | 18c | 1,431$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Basilashvili | 27c | 799.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.25 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Musetti | 75c | 684.6$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.63 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Basilashvili | 23c | 652.72$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Musetti | 78c | 575.69$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Basilashvili | 24c | 419.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Musetti | 77c | 398.96$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 103 | 72.8%75 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Basilashvili | 24c | 336.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Musetti | 72c | 234.61$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Basilashvili | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 77c | 157.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a3…ae13backed Musetti | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Musetti | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Musetti | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Musetti | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Basilashvili | 12c | 106.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Basilashvili | 28c | 70.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Basilashvili | 25c | 56.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Musetti | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Musetti | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Musetti | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…141cbacked Musetti | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.