Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1cded6b09062da0e998b124e02a7b40cfde50b6d942a3295b6b353872a84927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 34c | 3,920$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,587.52 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 69c | 2,634$1,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 66c | 2,555$1,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,679.5 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 67c | 2,540$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.29 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 1,407$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.2 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Over | 31c | 1,001$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.55 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…6ed7backed Over | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 33c | 999.99$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Over | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 34c | 429.03$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.16 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 65c | 266.83$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.86 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 34c | 200.61$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…8e95backed Under | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 31c | 175$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 33c | 119.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Over | 34c | 109.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 22c | 81.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…c836backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346a…45a1backed Over | 50c | 42.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 40c | 34.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 33c | 33.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Under | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 67c | 29.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Under | 66c | 22.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3e…303bbacked Under | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 68c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.