Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Stefani Webb vs Nanari Katsumi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1cf015856fd9830d68d6bfd5121b9881400c4bef8e7a7db69c55808c488c7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nanari Katsumiof Stefani Webb, Nanari Katsumi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…0f8fbacked Stefani Webb | 45c | 2,570$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Nanari Katsumi | 55c | 768$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.93 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Nanari Katsumi | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nanari Katsumi | 53c | 496.47$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.5 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Nanari Katsumi | 56c | 306$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Nanari Katsumi | 55c | 271.73$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nanari Katsumi | 52c | 260.64$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.75 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Stefani Webb | 5c | 242.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Stefani Webb | 52c | 175.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Nanari Katsumi | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Nanari Katsumi | 47c | 50.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Stefani Webb | 40c | 49.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Stefani Webb | 51c | 48.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nanari Katsumi | 50c | 42.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Nanari Katsumi | 39c | 39.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Stefani Webb | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…c696backed Stefani Webb | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 180 | 72.8%131 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Nanari Katsumi | 55c | 34.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nanari Katsumi | 46c | 31.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nanari Katsumi | 49c | 26.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Nanari Katsumi | 60c | 22.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.