Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Brown Bears (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1dc84c7ba5d9075f60723b8891a3c63acd822e3433c170a57d524fe0d7dcd53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Quakersof Brown Bears, Penn Quakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,328 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Brown Bears | 48c | 20,809$9,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,988.51 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Penn Quakers | 52c | 17,932$9,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,607.21 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn Quakers | 52c | 2,405$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.56 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…284abacked Penn Quakers | 55c | 101.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Penn Quakers | 55c | 84.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penn Quakers | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Penn Quakers | 55c | 45.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Brown Bears (-1.5)this page
- Penn Quakers vs. Brown BearsPenn Quakers won
- Penn Quakers vs. Brown Bears: O/U 142.5Over won
- Penn Quakers vs. Brown Bears: O/U 144.5Under won
- Penn Quakers vs. Brown Bears: O/U 145.5Under won
- Penn Quakers vs. Brown Bears: O/U 146.5Under won
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-1.5)Penn Quakers won
- Spread: Penn Quakers (-2.5)Penn Quakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.