Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs Samuel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ec120f4384cc83f6b9d959aef567496585813a47b4f8ea1bdfda8f20c53ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Samuelof Schwaerzler, Samuel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Schwaerzler | 38c | 1,133$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.36 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Samuel | 50c | 963.22$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.11 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ec…838fbacked Samuel | 79c | 801.39$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.21 | 188 | 68.6%129 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Samuel | 50c | 366.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.77 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Schwaerzler | 37c | 311.47$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Schwaerzler | 51c | 273.61$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Schwaerzler | 41c | 114.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Schwaerzler | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Schwaerzler | 68c | 82.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 567 | 54.5%309 W · 258 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Samuel | 31c | 78.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…8850backed Samuel | 61c | 76.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Schwaerzler | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Schwaerzler | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Schwaerzler | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Schwaerzler | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Schwaerzler | 35c | 48.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Schwaerzler | 54c | 32.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…e3ddbacked Schwaerzler | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Samuel | 44c | 24.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Schwaerzler vs Samuelthis page
- Joel Schwaerzler vs. Toby Samuel: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid: Joel Schwaerzler vs Toby SamuelToby Samuel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.