Tennis · resolved market
ITF Zagreb: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Caroline Werner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2137065a1bdf96d5904e45016ef28dfeebfd921d01335668463e6d20ee86c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Amarissa Kiara Tothof Amarissa Kiara Toth, Caroline Werner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Caroline Werner | 36c | 6,369$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.36 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 64c | 4,272$2,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.27 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 61c | 840.71$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.4 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…4dd6backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 579 | 50.9%295 W · 284 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…61f1backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 73c | 684.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.93 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Caroline Werner | 46c | 679.08$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.7 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 73c | 426$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 2,061 | 48.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L | +35.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Caroline Werner | 18c | 371.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Caroline Werner | 20c | 320.79$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 61c | 243.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 58c | 196.56$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 65c | 171.24$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.31 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Caroline Werner | 63c | 158.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Caroline Werner | 17c | 79.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 585 | 39.5%231 W · 354 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Caroline Werner | 43c | 68.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Caroline Werner | 32c | 63.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bad…ed33backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 68c | 57.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 62c | 56.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 63c | 46.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…00d3backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 70c | 39.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe149…f3b3backed Caroline Werner | 51c | 38.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Caroline Werner | 41c | 37.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…b868backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 67c | 30.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 73c | 27.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc919…d1ddbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 64c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 68c | 19.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Amarissa Kiara Toth | 67c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 133 | 66.2%88 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 57c | 18.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…c696backed Amarissa Kiara Toth | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 180 | 72.8%131 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.