NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21fff295da933ab1e2045d379c7b2d8d464cdb0ca982924d6fa56f8ae065ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Red Wings, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs | 66c | 606.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.05 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 34c | 557.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Red Wings | 36c | 103.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Red Wings | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Red Wings | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…5d26backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 33c | 67.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Red Wings | 32c | 66.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Red Wings | 33c | 61.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 40.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Red Wings | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Maple Leafs | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 35.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…7e8cbacked Red Wings | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Maple Leafs | 68c | 15.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed Maple Leafs | 68c | 14.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Maple Leafs vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.