TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Wingsof Maple Leafs, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$457,647
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$480,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,647 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 398 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Red Wings55c88,905$49,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,618.2367051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Maple Leafs44c40,000$17,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,699.9919555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs45c38,867$17,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,490.288151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Maple Leafs61c34,353$20,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,820.253951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Maple Leafs45c20,000$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,999.957850%39 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings55c14,645$8,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,590.091,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Maple Leafs45c13,067$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,880.0815953.5%85 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Red Wings45c12,855$5,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,038.1238738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Maple Leafs46c11,490$5,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,310.861,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs44c10,109$4,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,474.6393953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Red Wings51c9,711$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,787.261,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Maple Leafs45c9,567$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.2532744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Maple Leafs67c8,363$5,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,623.8311745.3%53 W · 64 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3679…2bacbacked Red Wings45c8,085$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,435.018952.8%47 W · 42 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Red Wings54c6,649$3,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.6356649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Maple Leafs46c6,611$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.1127243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Red Wings55c6,502$3,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,925.823360.6%20 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Maple Leafs48c6,239$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005853.4%31 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Maple Leafs44c5,485$2,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.412245.9%56 W · 66 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Red Wings55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.5523047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x501c…080bbacked Red Wings55c5,378$2,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Red Wings53c5,000$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,345.631654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Red Wings42c4,648$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.8589636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Red Wings54c4,533$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.252846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Red Wings54c4,533$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,085.1824654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Red Wings56c4,464$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.2950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Red Wings55c4,388$2,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,974.622150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs46c4,308$1,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,981.8786649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Maple Leafs46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,839.9724945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66c9…2e68backed Maple Leafs51c3,914$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004778.7%37 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44b9…0598backed Red Wings48c3,337$1,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.984146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Red Wings55c3,167$1,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.275855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Maple Leafs69c3,050$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.447162%44 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ba…3061backed Red Wings32c3,019$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.91250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs46c3,000$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3651,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings55c2,671$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.731,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Red Wings55c2,478$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.185259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Red Wings54c2,406$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.8326955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Maple Leafs3c2,286$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.582174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Maple Leafs1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs45c2,147$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.0528652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs46c2,137$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.9379350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Maple Leafs47c2,128$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.1511953.8%64 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Red Wings54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9204450%22 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24da…9561backed Red Wings54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.992740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings51c1,967$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.292,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f98…1fe3backed Red Wings55c1,905$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.451346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Red Wings54c1,870$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.247951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Wings37c1,846$684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.871,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Red Wings55c1,820$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.354032.5%13 W · 27 L-8.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1340…6747backed Maple Leafs46c1,812$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.571369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+39%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed Maple Leafs3c1,800$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51375.4%2 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs46c1,700$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78268449.9%341 W · 343 L-3.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Red Wings39c1,647$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.7275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Maple Leafs44c1,627$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.8817744.6%79 W · 98 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Red Wings41c1,585$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.7127739.4%109 W · 168 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Red Wings53c1,521$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.331851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Red Wings55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6756555.4%36 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9139…fbc0backed Red Wings56c1,500$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6601050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Red Wings54c1,500$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.81,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2065…48f2backed Maple Leafs45c1,499$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.29837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Maple Leafs44c1,494$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.1783652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Red Wings54c1,484$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.461668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+40.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Red Wings55c1,455$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.5553050.6%268 W · 262 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Red Wings55c1,442$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648.91,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Maple Leafs49c1,417$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.418840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Red Wings52c1,416$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.624247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Red Wings56c1,319$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.6241248.3%199 W · 213 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b0…2637backed Maple Leafs31c1,294$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs44c1,293$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.721,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6c…287fbacked Red Wings45c1,249$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Maple Leafs66c1,145$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.4157157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Red Wings12c1,123$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.242429.2%7 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick10cpaid+81.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Maple Leafs4c1,100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.651076.5%7 W · 100 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Maple Leafs46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007157.7%41 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Maple Leafs46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001520%3 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-64.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Maple Leafs55c1,018$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.1182043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Maple Leafs57c1,012$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.431,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Maple Leafs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Maple Leafs48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4808252.4%43 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Maple Leafs1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Maple Leafs44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4409353.8%50 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Maple Leafs45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Maple Leafs46c999.98$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.9925446.5%118 W · 136 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Red Wings52c961.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5211051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…a7fabacked Red Wings53c920$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.425555.3%141 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Red Wings55c872.73$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.7339649.5%196 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65c…dcdfbacked Maple Leafs45c846.89$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.12650%13 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Maple Leafs65c840.99$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6252172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Red Wings53c789.54$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.143360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Red Wings48c783.71$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.560141.9%252 W · 349 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x961d…953dbacked Red Wings55c780$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ac…3891backed Maple Leafs46c760$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.8wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+61.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Red Wings54c750$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3451,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings54c747.57$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.882,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Maple Leafs47c744$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1761953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52d…6ddebacked Red Wings54c737.36$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.36742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Red Wings55c721$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.451,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d3d…543cbacked Maple Leafs46c720$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings46c718.5$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.913,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.