NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64a772cfc15feb2b1f93f5948a2678e5f5b3233e37956d3371948c3c76060937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 759$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b9…292abacked Under | 54c | 511.11$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 507.28$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.76 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d8…b669backed Under | 51c | 492.33$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 400.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 50c | 215$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 53c | 199.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.14 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 192.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.29 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 53c | 132.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0724…9091backed Under | 53c | 118.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 89.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 55c | 88.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 46c | 66.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 52c | 51.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 48c | 29.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb72…10debacked Over | 52c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Under | 53c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.